NATIONAL COMMUNICATIONS

The Initial National Communication on Climate Change of Montenegro to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is a document of special importance, both for the fulfillment of the assumed obligations following the ratification of the Convention and the Kyoto Protocol, and because of the contained information which will serve as the basis for future activities relating to climate change in Montenegro. The Initial National Communication consists of the following five sections:

National circumstances;
Inventory of greenhouse gases of Montenegro;
Greenhouse gas emission reduction policies, measures and assessments;
Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change;
Constraints, gaps and requirements.

This document is the result of a two-year process of consultations and research coordinated by the Ministry for Spatial Planning and Environmentand the UNDP Mission to Montenegro, and participated by a large number of institutions of the system, as well as eminent both international and national technical experts. Some of the results and conclusions from this document are reviewed below, whereas the results of each segment are summarized in the form of an abstract at the beginning of this communication, in the first chapter.

The results for total equivalent greenhouse gas emissions (CO2eq), i.e. the emissions resulting from the use of global warming potential of individual gases (GWP), by economic sectors, not including LUCF, for the years of 1990 and 2003 are shown in Table 10.1 below.

Table 10.1: GHG Emissions and Percentage Shares by Economic Sectors (not including LUCF)

The foregoing table shows that the energy sector has the highest share in total emissions, so that an overview of GHG CO2eq emissions is shown by energy sub-sectors in Table 10.2 below.

Table 10.2 GHG Emissions with Percentage Shares in Total Emissions by Energy Sub-Sectors

The energy sector is the most important sector from the aspect of its share in the total GHG emissions generated in Montenegro, i.e. of the energy conversion sub-sector (Pljevlja Thermal Power Plant). However, if the emissions are analyzed individually, i.e. from the standpoint of contribution by particular industries, then the largest share in total emissions (emissions caused by fuel combustion, in addition to those resulting from the technological processes) is generated by the aluminum industry (Podgorica Aluminium Plant). 

As it can be noticed, no individual emissions by gases are specified in these tables, though such data can be found in the chapter on inventory of greenhouse gases. 

The projections of GHG emissions in Montenegro were prepared both for the energy and non-energy sector (industrial processes and waste). An assessment of GHG emissions reduction includes 2 scenarios: a baseline scenario and the one including measures for GHG emissions reduction.

The baseline scenario for GHG emissions is characterized by the absence of political measures in support of the activities towards a reduction of GHG emissions. By contract, the scenario which includes the measures for GHG emissions reduction assumes gradual introduction of measures leading to the reduction of GHG emissions. This scenario is oriented towards utilization of new renewable energy sources, which is primarily based on small hydro power plants and wind power plants, as opposed to the planned construction of the second block of TPP Pljevlja.


The following measures were examined in the energy consumption sector:
Combined heat and electricity generation (CHP);
Increasing industrial boiler-room efficiencies;
Substitute fuels for industrial boiler-rooms;
Substitute fuels for high-temperature heat generation;
Replacement of motor fuels;
Replacement of fuels for heating requirements;
Improvement of thermal insulation of residential buildings;
Increasing the share of heat pumps;
Small cogeneration;
Use of solar energy;
Increasing the share of TNG for cooking in households;
Energy efficient household appliances;
Replacement of classical light bulbs with LED light bulbs;
Boiler-room efficiency improvement;
Increasing the share of heat pumps;
Replacement of classical lamps in public lighting;
Motor poor energy efficiency improvement;
Introduction of alternative fuels as a substitute to the existing fossil fuels;
Planning and establishment of a more efficient transport system.


The following measures were examined in the industrial processes sector:
Improvement of technological processes by installing new equipment;
Improvement of technological processes by partial interventions on the existing equipment.


The following measures were examined in the agricultural sector:
Encouraging organic agriculture;
Reduction of methane emissions due to reduction of internal fermentation;
Improvement of animal waste management system practices;
Use of biomass from agriculture for energy purposes.


The following measures were examined in the sector of land use change and forestry:
Increasing carbon storage in plant mass;
Greater utilization of biomass of the wood intended for energy purposes.


The following measures were examined in the waste sector:
Construction of regional sanitary landfills with recycling centers;
Reduction of generated waste volumes by introducing primary selection and recycling;
Reduction of organic waste in municipal solid waste.

According to the projections of GHG emissions in the baseline scenario, in comparison to 1990, the level of GHG emissions will increase by approximately 40% in 2025. On the other hand, according to the scenario with GHG emissions reduction measures, in 2025 the projected level of GHG emissions will be lower by approximately 46% than the one for the same year according to the baseline scenario, and lower by 25% than the level of GHG emissions in 1990.

Analyzing the vulnerability and adaptation to the effects of climate change, this communication addressed the effect of long-term climate change on the most sensitive sectors such as: water resources; coastal area; agriculture; forestry; biodiversity and public health. The forecasts were prepared based on the results of climate scenarios A1B and A2 for Montenegro. Some adaptation measures were proposed for the foregoing vulnerable sectors; inter alia, the most significant measures for water resources would include the establishment of a registry of water resources, individual water resource mapping, including all characteristics, and identifying areas of potential danger; water resources of fundamental importance, such as water sources, have to be protected against any uncontrolled exploitation. The most important adaptation measures for the coastal area would understand the development of a quality and highly operational service monitoring the condition of the coast and waves,  warning of the existence of danger several days in advance, and preparing relevant spatial planning documentation which should include the effects of climate change on the coast, so that no construction or urbanization activities will be permitted in the zones which are potentially exposed to dangerous tidal waves, as  a result of the new situation. Other measures in all mentioned sectors are set out in the chapter on vulnerability and adaptation to climate change.

Finally, the communication also establishes the most significant technical and methodological constraints and gaps recognized during the preparation of the Initial Communication, the requirements that undoubtedly prove the necessity for institutionalization of the preparation of national communications and for the development of monitoring and reporting capacity in all elements of the Communication, in addition to the strengthening of climate change awareness on all levels and mechanisms for the formulation of an integrated response to climate change. These issues are addressed in more detail under the chapter on constraints, gaps and requirements.

The Initial National Communication on Climate Change of Montenegro to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)