CLIMATE CHANGE

According to the latest, Fourth Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC) of 2007, warming of the climate system is unequivocal. It is clearly indicated by the so far recorded increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level.

The temperature increase is evident across the entire planet and is more significant at higher northern latitudes. Observations dating back since 1961 show that the average global ocean temperatures rose to a depth of at least 3,000 m, and that the oceans take up more than 80% of additional heat in the climate system. Global average level of the sea has risen at an average rate of 1.8 mm per year in the period 1961 - 2003 and much faster - on average by 3.1 mm per year - in the decade 1993 - 2003. In the period 1900 – 2005, the precipitation significantly increased in the eastern parts of North and South America, northern Europe and northern and central parts of Asia, while precipitation declined in the Sahel region, the Mediterranean, southern Africa and parts of South Asia. The frequency and/or intensity of some extreme weather events have also changed in the last 50 years.

Causes of the observed changes are, very likely, increased concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) caused by human activities. This assessment from the Fourth IPCC Report (4AR) has a higher degree of certainty than the one given in the Third Report (TAR) from 2001, which said that "most of the observed warming over the past 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in GHG concentrations”. This means that the level of uncertainty about the nature of global warming is now lower than it used to be.

Global GHG emissions increased by about 70% in the period 1970 – 2004 alone. In 2005, atmospheric concentrations of some of the key GHG such as carbon dioxide and methane (CO2, CH4) were far above their natural ranges over the past 650,000 years. The global atmospheric concentration of CO2, for example, increased from 280 ppm in pre-industrial period to 379 ppm in 2005.

If actions  are not taken to reduce anthropogenic GHG emissions, the 4AR estimates that global average temperatures by the end of this century will increase by an additional 1.8 to 4.0 ° C (depending on the applied IPCC emissions scenarios), and for 6.4 ° C in the worst case scenario. Even an increase in temperature from the lower end of this range would lead to the total (past and future) growth of over 2°C compared to the pre-industrial period, which according to many scientists is the threshold above which irreversible and possibly catastrophic changes in the natural systems can be expected. For the decade 2090 - 2099, depending on the applied IPCC scenario, the sea level rise estimates are in the range of 18-59 cm, compared to the period 1980 - 1999.

Climate change is happening and is one of the greatest threats facing humanity, both in the field of environmental protection and in the economic and social arena. For southern Europe, for example, it is expected that climate change would worsen the conditions (high temperatures and drought) in this region already vulnerable to climate variability, as well as reduce the availability of water resources, hydropower potential, summer tourism and, in general, the productivity of crops.

Societies can respond to climate change by reducing GHG emissions, in order to reduce the extent and magnitude of change, and by adaptation to the actual changes. In 1992, the need for a systematic and global response to climate change brought about the adoption of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The Convention entered into force in 1994, and has been ratified by 194 countries and the European Union. UNFCCC is a framework for international cooperation in the field of climate change aiming to stabilize concentrations of GHGs in the atmosphere, thus preventing dangerous anthropogenic influences on the climate system. So far, 15 annual conferences (COPs) of the member countries of the Convention have been held.

KYOTO PROTOCOL

Kyoto protocol
The Kyoto Protocol of 1997 (entered into force in 2005) represents a step in the direction of reversing the global trend of rising GHG emissions. The Protocol set legally binding quantified targets for developed, industrialized countries to reduce their GHG emissions on average by 5% by 2012 (in relation to 1990). Both the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol are based on the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities of developed and developing countries (grouped in different Annexes of the Convention/ Protocol) for the previous increase in GHG concentrations in the atmosphere and global warming as well as for future action towards resolving the problem of climate change.

The Kyoto Protocol was ratified in 2007 by the adoption of the Law on Ratification of the Kyoto Protocol (Official Gazette of the Republic of Montenegro 17/07), so that the country became its member on 2 September 2007. Having ratified the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol, Montenegro joined the countries that share concerns and play an active role in international efforts to resolve the problem of climate change.

By ratifying the Kyoto Protocol and its entry into force the conditions were created for Montenegro, in line with national interests and priorities, on a voluntary basis, to participate in the Clean Development Mechanism established under the Kyoto Protocol (hereinafter referred to as “CDM“) and thereby provide an economically feasible way of inward foreign direct investments in the form of clean technologies.

In addition to ratifying the Kyoto Protocol, a condition for the participation in CDM projects is the establishment of institutional and legal framework for assessing and approving these projects and establishing a Designated National Authority (hereinafter referred to as “DNA”). In Montenegro, the DNA was established as the Council for Clean Development Mechanism. It was established on 5 February 2008.

The DNA Secretariat is the ministry responsible for environmental protection, while within the Environment Protection Agency the Council for CDM established a Technical operational body for operative procedures including technical analysis and review of project documentation; approval of project proposals will be subject to prior consultation with interested ministries (Ministry of Economy, Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Water Management, Ministry of Transport, Maritime Affairs and Telecommunications and Ministry of Finance), depending on the subject of the project. The ministry responsible for environmental protection adopted Guidelines on the mode of operation, criteria and deadlines for the evaluation and approval of potential projects of clean development mechanism and the criteria and indicators for sustainable development. DNA Montenegro was officially registered with the Secretariat of the Convention and is on the website of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

More on the Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC website.

COPENHAGEN ACCORD

Copenhagen accord
Final Document of the 15th Conference on Climate Change which was held in Copenhagen in December 2009 (the Copenhagen Agreement) is characterized, inter alia, by the following:

For the first time a global agreement was reached on limiting the temperature increase to less than 2°C in relation to the pre-industrial period, thus confirming the position of the scientific community that the temperature rise should not exceed this limit;
It is not legally binding, but represents the first step towards setting up legally binding and quantified targets for reducing emissions for the period 2013 - 2020 and in long term until 2050 (which is expected to be achieved at the next conference in Mexico).

The agreement stipulates that the countries will, until the end of January 2010, identify and communicate their national emission reduction targets until 2020, and also foresees significant financial resources to assist developing countries in combating global warming.

More on the Copenhagen agreement at COP 15 website.